Matthew Gardner Economic Reports • January 29, 2018

The Gardner Report – Windermere Real Estate

by Cori Whitaker

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

The Washington State economy added 104,600 new jobs over the past 12 months. This impressive growth rate of 3.1% is well above the national rate of 1.4%. Interestingly, the slowdown we saw through most of the second half of the year reversed in the fall, and we actually saw more robust employment growth.

Growth continues to be broad-based, with expansion in all major job sectors other than aerospace due to a slowdown at Boeing.

With job creation, the state unemployment rate stands at 4.5%, essentially indicating that the state is close to full employment. Additionally, all counties contained within this report show unemployment rates below where they were a year ago.

I expect continued economic expansion in Washington State in 2018; however, we are likely to see a modest slowdown, which is to be expected at this stage in the business cycle.

HOME SALES ACTIVITY

There were 22,325 home sales during the final quarter of 2017. This is an increase of 3.7% over the same period in 2016.
Jefferson County saw sales rise the fastest relative to fourth quarter of 2016, with an impressive increase of 22.8%. Six other counties saw double-digit gains in sales. A lack of listings impacted King and Skagit Counties, where sales fell.
Housing inventory was down by 16.2% when compared to the fourth quarter of 2016, and down by 17.3% from last quarter. This isn’t terribly surprising since we typically see a slowdown as we enter the winter months. Pending home sales rose by 4.1% over the third quarter of 2017, suggesting that closings in the first quarter of 2018 should be robust.
The takeaway from this data is that listings remain at very low levels and, unfortunately, I don’t expect to see substantial increases in 2018. The region is likely to remain somewhat starved for inventory for the foreseeable future.

HOME PRICES

Because of low inventory in the fall of 2017, price growth was well above long-term averages across Western Washington. Year-over-year, average prices rose 12% to $466,726.
Economic vitality in the region is leading to a demand for housing that far exceeds supply. Given the relative lack of newly constructed homes—something that is unlikely to change any time soon—there will continue to be pressure on the resale market. This means home prices will rise at above-average rates in 2018.
Compared to the same period a year ago, price growth was most pronounced in Lewis County, where home prices were 18.8% higher than a year ago. Eleven additional counties experienced double-digit price growth as well.
Mortgage rates in the fourth quarter rose very modestly, but remained below the four percent barrier. Although I anticipate rates will rise in 2018, the pace will be modest. My current forecast predicts an average 30-year rate of 4.4% in 2018—still remarkably low when compared to historic averages.

DAYS ON MARKET

The average number of days it took to sell a home in the fourth quarter dropped by eight days, compared to the same quarter of 2016.
King County continues to be the tightest market in Western Washington, with homes taking an average of 21 days to sell. Every county in the region saw the length of time it took to sell a home either drop or remain static relative to the same period a year ago.
Last quarter, it took an average of 50 days to sell a home. This is down from 58 days in the fourth quarter of 2016, but up by 7 days from the third quarter of 2017.
As mentioned earlier in this report, I expect inventory levels to rise modestly, which should lead to an increase in the average time it takes to sell a house. That said, with homes selling in less than two months on average, the market is nowhere near balanced.

CONCLUSIONS

This speedometer reflects the state of the region’s housing market using housing inventory, price gains, home sales, interest rates, and larger economic factors. For the fourth quarter of 2017, I have left the needle at the same point as third quarter. Price growth remains robust even as sales activity slowed. 2018 is setting itself up to be another very good year for housing.

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate, specializing in residential market analysis, commercial/industrial market analysis, financial analysis, and land use and regional economics. He is the former Principal of Gardner Economics, and has more than 30 years of professional experience both in the U.S. and U.K.

Matthew Gardner’s 2018 Housing Forecast

by Cori Whitaker

In a nutshell, here is Matthew Gardner’s 2018 Housing Forecast. If you want to read his forecast in more detail, click here: http://bit.ly/2Cx1oSG

Kenmore • Neighborhood Profiles • December 18, 2017

Essential Kenmore Commuting Tips: Seaplanes, Buses, Bikes, Cars, & More!

by Cori Whitaker

Nestled along the northern shores of Lake Washington and in between Bothell, Brier, and Lake Forest Park, the city of Kenmore is in a central location. Whether you need to head north to Everett or south toward Bellevue or Seattle, several commuting options await at your fingertips!

With the help of local Jen B, we’ve put together this handy guide to commuting from Kenmore. From the more unique options of seaplanes and biking to more traditional driving and transit options, Kenmore offers a little bit of everything to suit your style.

Commuting in Kenmore by Plane

Perhaps the most unique commuting option in Kenmore is to commute by seaplane via Lake Washington. “Kenmore Air is a great options for chartering or taking scheduled flights to the San Juans, Canada, and beyond!” shares Jen. Kenmore Air also provides private charters to other areas—need to hop over to Lake Union? It’s a possibility with Kenmore Air!

Commuting in Kenmore by Car

“522 is the main drag in Kenmore and it connects commuters to Eastside and Seattle,” says Jen, and Kenmore is located in between Highway 405 (to the east) and Interstate-5 (to the north). There’s also the Kenmore Park-and-Ride as well, a facility with 603 parking space, bicycle lockers, and several buses coming and going all day long.

Commuting in Kenmore by Bus

“Bus stops are plentiful here!” shares Jen. Served by both King County Metro and Sound Transit, you can hop on a bus heading almost anywhere from Kenmore. Whether you need to get to Shoreline or head into Downtown Seattle to work, the vast network of buses makes it all possible. Click here to find more information on specific routes!

Commuting in Kenmore by Bike

“The Burke-Gilman Trail runs between 522 and Lake Washington [and] makes a VERY scenic route to work for cyclists who have a final destination in Redmond or Seattle (and places in between),” shares Jen. With beautiful views of Lake Washington and a convenient route that begins in Kenmore, the Burke-Gilman Trail is the perfect way to squeeze your daily workout and commute into one and the same! Click here to see a map complete with road access points.

Commuting by Light Rail

With Light Rail expanding north from Seattle, Kenmore residents will be able to take advantage of commuting while being able to skip car traffic! The Light Rail has several new stops planned from University of Washington to Everett that you might be able to take advantage of if you live in Kenmore. Click here to check out the complete list of projects, light rail station locations, and timelines.

Kenmore • Neighborhood Profiles • December 17, 2017

Your Guide to Enjoying the Lake Washington Waterfront in Kenmore

by Cori Whitaker

Though the warm weather has passed, that doesn’t mean you can’t start thinking about next summer’s adventures. We asked our locals for some tips on enjoying the Lake Washington waterfront and they gave us their top insights.

Here is your guide to enjoying the Lake Washington waterfront in Kenmore (as recommended by our locals):

Saint Edward State Park

Located at 14445 Juanita Dr. N.E. Kenmore, WA 98028

When it comes to enjoying the waterfront in Kenmore, Saint Edward State Park (“set on the eastern shore of Lake Washington,” according to Claudette M cannot be beat. “This is the highlight of Kenmore in terms of getting out into the woods and feeling like you’re miles from home, but you’re not,” shares Jen B. “Miles of hiking and wooded biking trails are found at this stunning state park. There’s a pretty hike from the top of the hill all the way down to Lake Washington (don’t forget good shoes since it’s a little steep). A huge playground next to the old seminary is a highlight for families.” Claudette seconds Jen’s recommendation, adding that “although we don’t get there often enough, my family and I love to explore the low forest hiking trails in Saint Edward State Park…Our more adventurous friends regularly go mountain biking on the many miles of trails in the park, with their 5 and 3-year-old in tow—there’s terrain for every skill level.” For a breath of fresh air the whole family will love, check out Saint Edward State Park today.

Log Boom Park

Located at 17415 61st Ave. N.E. Kenmore, WA 98028

Whether you’re looking to cool off or explore the local waters, you can do that and so much more at Log Boom Park. “Log Boom Park, just off the north end of the Lake and right next to Burke Gilman Trail is an awesome place to take a dip in the lake off of a huge elevated dock,” says Jen. “Lots of places to launch kayaks or stand up paddleboards. Great views of Mount Rainier can be found here and fireworks on the Fourth of July. Also, it’s a great spot to watch Kenmore Air departures and arrivals.” For a day filled with fun and relaxation, Log Boom Park has you covered.

Kenmore Boat Launch

Located at 17150 68th Ave. N.E. Kenmore, WA 98028

For those looking to get out on the water, the Kenmore Boat Launch is a secret gem. “The Kenmore boat launch is a hidden access point to Lake Washington,” says Casey B. “While it lacks a dock, it’s one of the few public boat launches in the northern half of Lake Washington. Its 2 boat launches and about 30 parking spaces are popular in the summer.”

“Launch the boat in Lake Washington,” says Jen. “[This] is the only public boat launch at the north end of Lake Washington. Parking can be very tight, so best to get there early on sunny summer days. Also a good spot to launch the paddle board or kayak and head east towards downtown Bothell on the slough. Lots of bird watching and very calm waters along the slough.” So, if you’re quick enough when those sunny summer days roll around, you can take advantage of all that Lake Washington has to offer at the Kenmore Boat Launch.

Sammamish River

Finally, if you’re still looking for ways to enjoy Lake Washington’s waterfront, rent a kayak and take it along the slow-moving Sammamish River. “Sammamish River [offers] kayaking rentals, located at the mouth leading to the north end of Lake Washington,” says Michele K. Perfect for both beginners and more experienced kayakers, this river is one of the best ways to take in all of the beauty that makes the Lake Washington area such a popular warm-weather destination.

Kenmore • Neighborhood Profiles • December 16, 2017

Coming Soon to Kenmore: What You Can Expect in Kenmore’s Near Future

by Cori Whitaker

While Kenmore already offers a long list of excellent city amenities and a variety of housing options, there is always something new happening in the neighborhood. We wanted to take a moment to highlight 3 things you might especially be interested if you’re thinking about moving to Kenmore, and we talked to a couple of locals who have the scoop!

New Construction Homes

Curious about buying a home in Kenmore, WA? According to Jen B, “New construction abounds in Kenmore! It’s Northshore School District, so get ready for a little sticker shock!”

In Kenmore, you can expect to find some truly gorgeous homes. There are some incredible new construction homes, but there are older more established homes in the mix as well. Click here to take a quick look at some of Kenmore’s current home listings!

Lakepointe Waterfront Development

According to Michele K, “The waterfront development Lakepointe will transform the city by turning nearly 50 acres of industrial use space into shopping, dining and residential units.”

Located right on the shores of Lake Washington the Lakepointe development is a mixed-use development that will include a variety of land uses, and has been designed to “integrate the usage among residents, shoppers, vehicles, pedestrians and cyclists.” The plan was actually started back in 1989, and the proposed development has gone through several years of a citizen task force working with the developer to create a successful space. Weidner and Associates plans to invest $1 billion in the project.

Downtown Kenmore

Downtown Kenmore has been undergoing some serious changes, and there are even more redevelopment projects underway in the near future! While the Kenmore Town Square is complete, a new Hangar community building is in the works, and upcoming developments also include a large restaurant, commercial space, healthcare facilities, and more. Click here for the full overview of what you can expect in this Kenmore destination!

Kenmore • Neighborhood Profiles • December 15, 2017

4 Fun Family-Friendly Weekend Activities in Kenmore

by Cori Whitaker

If you live in Kenmore, we have your inside scoop on some of the best weekend activities in the area that everyone will love!

Here’s a look at 4 fun family-friendly weekend activities in Kenmore, as recommended by our locals:

SAINT EDWARD STATE PARK

When it comes to family-friendly fun in Kenmore, one of the first things that comes to mind for both Jen B and Claudette M is the fabulous Saint Edward State Park.

“Although we don’t get there often enough, my family and I love to explore the low forest hiking trails in Saint Edward State Park, set on the eastern shore of Lake Washington,” Claudette says. “Our more adventurous friends regularly go mountain biking on the many miles of trails in the park, with their 5 and 3-year-old in tow—there’s terrain for every skill level.” Jen simply says that there is “too much good stuff to share about Saint Edward [State Park],” proving that this spot is an absolute must for any outdoorsy group.

BREWING & BIKING

What better way to spend a weekend with the gang than with a bike ride and some grub? “192 Brewing Co. and Cairn Brewing are right along the Burke-Gilman Trail and family-friendly,” shares Jen. “Very cool outdoor spaces at 192 Brewing and Cairn Brewing has a very ‘Fremont’ vibe without having to head into Seattle!” Michele K adds that 192 Brewing has “great outdoor seating in the summer [and a] wood stove inside for the winter. Great food and beer. Board games, pool table, kids are welcome and so is your pooch! Right on the Burke-Gilman trail…Cairn Brewery and Nine Yards [are] great places [too] but 192 is the best.”

“I’m also a big fan of 192 Brewing,” says Brian H. “Take a bike ride on the Burke-Gilman and stop in on Sunday afternoons for live music in the outdoor beer garden!” If you’re looking to relax after a day along the trail, these are your go-to spots.

BOWLING

A popular pastime for families everywhere, Claudette suggests spending a weekend with some bowling at Kenmore Lanes. “It’s one of only a few bowling alleys still remaining in all of north King County,” she shares. With good food and cheap prices, it’s an affordable way to get everyone out of the house and having fun (with a little healthy competition thrown in!).

OUT & ABOUT TOWN (SHOPPING & RESTAURANTS)

For a simple weekend of shopping and food, don’t miss out on these top picks by Jen and Claudette. “I was introduced to Acapulco Fresh Mexican Grill by friends that lived just up the hill from this unassuming strip mall restaurant,” Claudette shares. “It is their regular go-to for take-out. The meals are fast, fresh, and authentic. Everyone raves about the salsa bar.” If you just need a quick pick-me-up, try Jen’s favorite, Espresso Works. “…Love Espresso Works for quick, independently owned drive-thru, family-friendly coffee along Bothell Way,” she says. “Daily drink specials and espresso bean on top of your cup! Love this coffee stand!”

If you’re looking for a gift, check out Ostroms Drug and Gift. “Ostroms Drug and Gift off Bothell Way has a really awesome gift shop…the perfect little gift is here,” says Jen. Whatever occasion you may need a present for, you are sure to find something fun, eclectic, and fitting. Finally, need something for a child, but don’t want to settle on something from a chain store? Then stop by Snapdoodle Toys. “Snapdoodle Toys is an independent, family-owned, specialty toy store located in the historic Schnitzelbank building along Bothell Way,” Claudette says. “We stop in for the specialty and innovative toys that one can’t find in chain stores.” Show you really care and support your community with a visit to these local spots today.

Kenmore • Neighborhood Profiles • December 15, 2017

Welcome to Kenmore!

by Cori Whitaker

Nestled along the northern shores of Lake Washington, Kenmore is a small city that people love in part for its central location in the region. Whether you need to head toward Seattle or Bellevue for work, both are just to the south of Kenmore, and the many commuting options in the city (including seaplanes!) ensure you have a variety of choice to suit your own personal style.

Kenmore is home to a myriad of things to do, whether you need to enjoy some indoor activities with the family in the winter time, or want to get outside for some adventures in the sunshine when summer rolls around. Downtown Kenmore is brimming with up-and-coming amenities and attractions, and new developments (like the Lakepointe Development) offer even more opportunity for dining, shopping, housing, and more.

Getting Out & About

“St. Edward State Park is the highlight of Kenmore in terms of getting out into the woods and feeling like you’re miles from home, but you’re not. Miles of hiking and wooded biking trails are found at this stunning state park. There’s a pretty hike from the top of the hill all the way down to Lake Washington—don’t forget good shoes since it’s a little steep. [There’s also] a huge playground next to the old seminary is a highlight for families.” –Jen B

“Although we don’t get there often enough, my family and I love to explore the low forest hiking trails in St. Edward State Park, set on the Eastern shore of Lake Washington. Our more adventurous friends regularly go mountain biking on the many miles of trails in the park, with their 5- and 3-year-old in tow. There’s terrain for every skill level.” –Claudette M

“192 Brewing Co. and Cairn Brewing are right along the Burke Gilman Trail and family friendly. [There are] very cool outdoor spaces at 192 Brewing and Cairn Brewing have a very ‘Fremont’ vibe without having to head into Seattle!” –Jen B

“I’m also a big fan of 192 Brewing! Take a bike ride on the Burke Gilman and stop in on Sunday afternoons for live music in the outdoor beer garden!” –Brian H

Commuting From Kenmore

“522 is the main drag in Kenmore and it connects commuters to [the] Eastside and Seattle. Bus stops are plentiful here! Also, the Burke Gilman trail runs between 522 and Lake Washington. Makes a VERY scenic route to work for cyclists who have a final destination in Redmond or Seattle (and places in between). [Also there are] seaplanes! Kenmore Air is a great options for chartering or taking scheduled flights to the San Juans, Canada, and beyond!” –Jen B

Homes in Kenmore

“New construction abounds in Kenmore. It’s Northshore School District, so get ready for a little sticker shock!” –Jen B

“[There are] many homes located on the river or up on the hill with lovely lake and sunset views. [There is also a] private golf community [called] Inglewood Country Club.” –Michele K

Lake Forest Park • Neighborhood Profiles • November 16, 2017

Your Guide to the Town Center at Lake Forest Park

by Cori Whitaker

More than just a mall, the Town Center at Lake Forest Park is where the community comes together to share and indulge in all of the fun and convenience the area has to offer. From food to shopping and other services, this is your one-stop spot!

Here is your go-to guide to the Town Center at Lake Forest Park:

FOOD

If you’re looking to satisfy your hunger, the diverse food options at the Town Center will do the trick. Make a caffeine run to Starbucks and enjoy the scenery: “The neighborhood ducks are a fun attraction when they visit,” says Bernice W. You can also stop by the Third Place Books food court and check out Claudette M’s recommended spot, the Honey Bear Bakery: “[I often] meet a friend or client for lunch at the Honey Bear Bakery, which serves up wholesome, delicious sandwiches (my favorite is the BLTA) and delectable large slices of cake,” she shares. “Honey Bear is one of three restaurants in the comfortable Third Place Commons located within the book store,” so no matter what you’re craving, you are guaranteed to find something you love. For a complete list of the restaurants in the Town Center, click here.

SHOPPING

With the holidays around the corner, the Town Center is your go-to for finding that perfect gift. “Mud Bay in [the] Lake Forest [Park] Town Center has my attention these days,” Bernice shares. “It is a great place to bring your pet while shopping for that something special or that top of the line food product. The customer service is so helpful and friendly.” She adds that “[Town Center] Hardware is another really fun place. “They have pretty much everything.”

Claudette loves “stopping in at Third Place Books… where you can study, eat, read, play (there’s a small play area for toddlers), or just watch people come and go. A truly wonderful community gathering space!” A final shoutout goes to the Avid Angler, the premier shop for your fly fishing needs. Wherever your interests lie, you’re bound to find something that catches your attention!

SERVICES

The Town Center offers more than just food and shopping—there are also great services you can take advantage of. Pamper yourself with an appointment at A Better Day Salon, where you can get a haircut, facial, massage, and more. Plan your next vacation at the Expedia Cruise Ships Center, or bring your laundry to the Forest Park Cleaners. There are also medical and financial services available, so whatever you may need is at your fingertips!

For updates on sales, discounts, and events, check out the Town Center at Lake Forest Park Facebook page.

Lake Forest Park • Neighborhood Profiles • November 16, 2017

Lake Forest Park: A Guide to the Best Parks & Outdoor Activities

by Cori Whitaker

If you’re an outdoor lover, you’re bound to love the opportunities that await in Lake Forest Park! Located right along Lake Washington, “the hilly topography …translates into many homes enjoying [views of the] Cascade Mountains, or verdant territorial views, and some with Lake Washington views, too,” shares Claudette M. From catching these stunning views to enjoying some local amenities, you’re sure to find something to suit your every mood, whether you want to go out for a day of adventure or simply relax with a pretty view.

Here is our guide to the best parks & outdoor activities in Lake Forest Park:

PARKS ALONG LAKE WASHINGTON

*NOTE: All parks are open from dawn-dusk daily.*

Grace Cole Nature Park

Located at 30th Ave. N.E. Lake Forest Park, WA 98155

For a peek at the wildlife that makes up Lake Forest Park, check out the Grace Cole Nature Park. A wetland teeming with native plants, birds, and amphibians, it is a crucial habitat and a valuable resource for nature lovers.

Pfingst Animal Acres Park

Located at 17435 Brookside Blvd. N.E. Lake Forest Park, WA 98155

Another great spot to catch nature in action is at the Pfingst Animal Acres Park. If you stop by the edge of the park, you’ll have a perfect view of the salmon as they swim through McAleer Creek. With unique amenities like a metal dogwood flower drinking fountain, this is the perfect place to relax and enjoy the outdoors.

Horizon View Park

Located at 19845-20099 47th Ave. N.E. Lake Forest Park, WA 98155

Affectionately nicknamed “Choo-Choo Park,” Horizon View Park is your all-purpose space. Enjoy a picnic, hike through the wooded areas, or join your kid for a ride on the play train.

Lyon Creek Waterfront Preserve

Located at 17337 Beach Dr. N.E. Lake Forest Park, WA 98155

For a moment of quiet contemplation, nothing beats looking out at the waters at the Lyon Creek Waterfront Preserve. Containing 100 feet of Lake Washington shoreline and 250 feet of Lyon Creek, it’s one of the most peaceful parks around.

Eagle Scout Park

Located at 3715 N.E. 180th St. Lake Forest Park, WA 98155

Owned by the Lake Forest Park Civic Club, Eagle Scout Park is perfect for those who are looking for a good workout. Take a break from running and stretch your muscles on their exercise bars while you let the little ones run wild on the play toy!

Blue Heron Park

Located at 17043 Brookside Blvd. N.E. Lake Forest Park, WA 98155

A hidden gem at a busy intersection, Blue Heron Park is filled with lush native landscaping and primitive pathways lined with lovely plants. Stop by to view the salmon and look out for herons; you may see them fishing for lunch!

Whispering Willow Park

Located at 17038 44th Ave. N.E. Lake Forest Park, WA 98155

Acquired in 2011, Whispering Willow Park is in the perfect location to help restore the water quality and habitat of Lyon Creek. Located right next to Lake Forest Park’s Town Center, this park is a diamond in the rough that cannot be missed.

BEACH CLUBS

Lake Forest Park Civic Club

Located at 17301 Beach Dr. N.E. Lake Forest Park, WA 98155

With gorgeous scenic views and events the whole family will love, the Lake Forest Civic Club is definitely worth checking out. “The Civic Club is well known with plenty of surrounding homes being deeded in,” says Casey B. If you’re interested in all the Civic Club has to offer, submit a membership application today.

Sheridan Beach Community Club

Located at 16500 Shore Dr. N.E. Lake Forest Park, WA 98155

With a swim team, water polo, and other aquatic programs, the Sheridan Beach Club is perfect for those who love the water and want to be more involved. “[The] lesser known…Sheridan Beach Club…provides excellent amenities, shore access, a pool and most importantly, a heightened sense of community,” says Casey. “If you’re looking for it all in LFP, the Beach Club is where you should start.”

THE BEST WAYS TO GET AROUND

Burke-Gilman Trail

When it comes to commuting through Lake Forest Park to surrounding communities, the preferred method of travel may not be what you’d expect. “Lake Forest Park residents predominantly rely on car & bus for their commutes to Seattle or the Eastside,” Claudette shares. “However, with convenient access to a 2-mile stretch of the Burke-Gilman Trail that passes through the city, there is a robust population of residents that commute into Seattle by bicycle, and particularly work centers such as the University of Washington & Children’s Hospital.”

If you’re looking to cut down on gas costs, help the planet, and enjoy some great views on your way to work, grab your bike and start pedaling!

McKinnon Creek Trail

If you’re in the mood for getting around on foot, the McKinnon Creek Trail is going to be the best spot to check out. A 0.5 mile forested trail located about half a mile northwest of City Hall, it’s perfect for everything from a short jog to a slow-and-steady hike.

New Construction Homes

Lakepointe Waterfront Development

Downtown Kenmore

SAINT EDWARD STATE PARK

BREWING & BIKING

BOWLING

OUT & ABOUT TOWN (SHOPPING & RESTAURANTS)

Getting Out & About

Commuting From Kenmore

Homes in Kenmore

Here is your go-to guide to the Town Center at Lake Forest Park:

FOOD

SHOPPING

SERVICES

For updates on sales, discounts, and events, check out the Town Center at Lake Forest Park Facebook page.

PARKS ALONG LAKE WASHINGTON

BEACH CLUBS

THE BEST WAYS TO GET AROUND

For more tips on how you can enjoy the outdoors in Lake Forest Park, click here.